FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI TUKAR DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP RUPIAH TAHUN 2000–2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32477/jrm.v1i2.114Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Abstract
Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.
References
Arifin, Samsjul (1998), Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, Vol.1 No.3, Desember hal 1-16
Bank Indonesia (2014), Laporan Perekonomian 2013, Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.
Bank Indonesia (2014), Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia, Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.
Badan Pusat Statistik (2014), Data Ekspor Impor. Tersedia di : http://bps.go.id/eximframe. php?kat=2&id_subyek=08¬ab=50 diakses pada tanggal 24 April 2014.
Badan Pusat Statistik (2014), Data IHK dan Inflasi. Tersedia di: http://www.bps.go.id/ aboutus.php?inflasi=1 diakses pada tanggal 24 April 2014.
CEIC Database
Corden, W. Max (2002), Too Sensational on the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes. MIT Press.
Direktorat Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter Bank Indonesia (2000), “Dinamika Perkembangan Nilai Tukar”. Makalah disampaikan pada Sekolah Pendidikan Staff Bank dan Pimpinan Bank. Jakarta.
Dornbush, Rudiger Julius and Stanley Fisher (2008), Macroeconomics Fourth Edition. Singapura: McGraw-Hill.
Engle, Robert F., dan Byung Sam Yoo (1987), “Forecasting and Testing in Co-Integrated Systems,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 35, pp. 143–159.
Gujarati, Damodar N., dan Dawn C. Porter (2011), Dasar-dasar Ekonometrika, Buku1 Edisi 5, Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Nopirin (1987) Ekonomi Moneter, Buku II, Edisi ke-1, Yogyakarta: BPFE UGM.
Nopirin (1997), Ekonomi Moneter, Buku I, Yogyakarta: BPFE UGM