DEVELOPMENT OF THE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM MODEL ON THE PERFORMANCE OF BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT (BPR)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32477/semnas.v4i1.1313Keywords:
EWS, Performance, BPR.Abstract
This study aims to analyze the role of the Early Warning System (EWS) in predicting bankruptcy at Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR). The EWS is viewed as an early detection mechanism capable of identifying financial and non-financial indicators that could potentially lead to bankruptcy risk. This study uses historical BPR data to develop an EWS-based prediction model. This study uses a quantitative approach and empirical methodology. The quantitative approach was chosen because it allows for objective measurement of financial variables and testing of relationships between variables using statistical techniques in SEMPLS. The population in this study is all BPR operating in the East Kalimantan region and officially registered with the Financial Services Authority (OJK), with an observation period starting from 2019 to 2025. The implications of this research emphasize the importance of implementing an EWS as an effective risk management tool for rural banks (BPRs) and providing input to regulators in strengthening the banking supervisory system. Thus, the EWS serves not only as an early warning system but also as a strategic instrument in maintaining the stability and sustainability of BPRs amidst local and national economic dynamics.
References
Ahmad Roy, F. D., and W. W. (2025). The Impact Of Size And Capitalization On Bank Performance: Empirical Evidence From Small Banks In Indonesia. International Journal of Education, Business and Economics Research (IJEBER), 2(1), 34–52. https://doi.org/https://ijeber.com/
Al-Faryan, M. A. S. (2024). Agency theory, corporate governance and corruption: an integrative literature review approach. Cogent Social Sciences, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2024.2337893
Alwi, F. H., & Abrianto, H. (2022). Analisis sistem peringatan dini terhadap potensi kebangkrutan Bank Perekonomian Rakyat di Depok. Account: Jurnal Akuntansi, 9(2), 123–135. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32722/account.v9i2.4713
Aprih Santoso et al. (2023). Akuntansi Manajemen (S. Fachrurazi (ed.); Cetakan Pe). Eureka Media Aksara. https://digilib.iainptk.ac.id/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/2758/23-01-125-EBOOK-Akuntansi Manajemen.pdf?sequence=1
Dewi, J. I., Latif, I. N., Ruliana, T., & Permana, M. (2025). The “Bigger Is Better” Fallacy: Asset Size, Operational Inefficiency, And The Path To Ruin In Rural Banking. International Journal of Business Management and Economic Review, 8(06), 1–9. https://doi.org/https://ijbmer.org/link7.php?id=718
Fauziah, D. R., & Kediri, I. (2021). The Influence Of Intellectual Capital On The Financial Performance Of Sharia Public Bank Indonesia In 2019-2021. 4, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.21274/balance
Gumgum Darmawan, Annisa Permata Sari, Ashilla Maula Hudzaifa, Haana Lahanda Putri Samsi, M. Y. A. (2023). Efisiensi Operasional dengan Promodel: Panduan Teori Antrian (G. Darmawan (ed.); pertama). Kaizen Media Publishing. https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=h0XqEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA19&dq=definisi+efisiensi+operasional+&ots=jQXXevkAuJ&sig=LnhnJeayvIrvYhdCDyxqSU_f49o&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=definisi efisiensi operasional&f=false
Gunardi, G., Karyadi, K., Pujianti, A., Zahra, S., Ksatria, P., Munggaran, M. Z., Hanifah, S., & Ikhsan, S. (2022). Analisis kredit bermasalah ditinjau dari non performing loan (NPL) pada PT Bank Mandiri (persero) Tbk. Fair Value: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 4(11), 5228–5232. https://doi.org/10.32670/fairvalue.v4i11.1838
Hamdy, A., Mohamed, A., Talla, M., & Mohamed, K. (2025). Bridging the nexus between Fintech, operational efficiency, and bank profitability : the moderating role of bank size. Future Business Journal, 11(62), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-025-00478-x
Jones, M., & Hills, S. (2021). Scaling up action on urban sustainable food systems in the United Kingdom: Agenda setting, networking, and influence. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(4), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042156
Liviawati, Gusmarila Eka Putri, J. W. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Faktor Internal Dan Eksternal Terhadap NPL Bank Perkreditan Rakyat. Jurnal Akuntansi Kompetif, 5(2), 155–161. https://doi.org/https://ulilalbabinstitute.co.id/index.php/EKOMA/article/view/4619
Michalkova, L., & Ponisciakova, O. (2025). Bankruptcy Prediction, Financial Distress and Corporate Life Cycle: Case Study of Central European Enterprises. Administrative Sciences, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci15020063
Nainggolan, S., Marpaung, I., Hutasoit, H., Zega, N., & Siallagan, H. (2024). Analisis Perilaku Biaya Terhadap Biaya Tetap. Research In Accounting Journal, 3(5), 247–253.
Napitupulu, S., & Puspitasari, D. M. (2023). Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan Bank Perekonomian Rakyat di Indonesia.
Obeid, R. (2022). Early Warning of Bank Failure in the Arab Region : A Logit Regression Approach. Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 9(2), 91–99. https://doi.org/10.20448/ajeer.v9i2.4120
Pratiwi, A. N., Rakhimah, F. A., Nugraha, D. A., Oktafia, R., & Anyar, G. (2024). Analisis ROA Tinjauan Literatur dan Implikasinya dalam Pengukuran Kinerja Keuangan Perbankan. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 2(6), 89–97. https://doi.org/https://www.ejurnal.kampusakademik.co.id/index.php/jiem/article/view/1280
Rajagukguk, et al. (2022). Biaya Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO): Suatu Telaah Pustaka. JEMES – Jurnal Ekonomi Manajaemen Dan Sosial, 5(1), 12–18. https://ojs.ejournalunigoro.com/index.php/JEMeS/article/view/290/259
Salamah, U., & Puspitasari, E. (2024). Pengaruh Kecukupan Modal , Likuiditas , Risiko Kredit , Dan Pendahuluan. Gorontalo Accounting Journal, 7(1), 103–115. https://doi.org/10.32662/gaj.v7i1.3349
Siswoyo, B. J. M. A. B. B. A. (2024). Analisis Financial Distress Pada Bank Perekonomian Rakyat Di Surabaya Pada Periode 2015-2023. JIMEA | Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 8(2), 782–794. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v8i2.4039
Sri Nursintia Zakaria, Niswatin, N. Y. (2024). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Optimalisasi Aset Tetap. Jambura Accounting Review, 5(1), 145 – 159. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37905/jar.v5i2.128
Tasikmalaya, K., Barat, J., Suryanugraha, D. Z., Masitoh, N., & Nisa, A. S. (2025). Analisa Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan ( Financial Distress ) Menggunakan Metode Altman Z- Score Pada BPR Dan BPRS Kota Dan.
Tazarki Walid, A. F. (2023). Measuring the X-Efficiency of Saudi Banks: Case Study Pre and Post-Coronavirus Crisis. Theoretical Economics Letters, 13(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2023.131008
Umilia Audina, & Novien Rialdy. (2024). Pengaruh Bopo, Npf, Fdr Terhadap Roa Unit Usaha Syariah Di Indonesia 2021-2023. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 1(2), 103–111. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61722/jemba.v1i2.107
Urrochman, M. Y., Setyati, E., & Kristian, Y. (n.d.). Prediksi Timing Financial Distress Pada Bank Perkreditan Rakyat di Indonesia Menggunakan Machine Learning.
Usriyati, R., Priyono, N., & Khabibah, N. A. (2022). Penanganan Kredit Bermasalah (Non-Performing Loan) Pada PT. BPR BKK Muntilan (Perseroda). Akuntansi Dan Manajemen, 17(1), 60–71. https://doi.org/1https://doi.org/10.30630/jam.v17i1.176
Waliyudin, M. W., & Muniarty, P. (2022). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Non Performing Loan ( Npl ) Pada Pt Bank Danamon Indonesia TbK. BanKu : Jurnal Perbankan Dan Keuangan, 3(Agustus), 65–72. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37058/banku.v3i2.5822
Wardoyo, D. U., Rahmadani, R., & Hanggoro, P. T. (2022). Good Corporate Governance Dalam Perspektif Teori Keagenan. EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi, 1(1), 39–43. https://doi.org/https://ulilalbabinstitute.co.id/index.php/EKOMA/article/view/25
